US: Medical Personnel - National Systems

Density of medical doctors (per 10,000 population) (2009-2018): 25.9
Density of nursing and midwifery personnel (per 10,000 population) (2009-2018): 85.5
Density of dentists (per 10,000 population) (2009-2018): 6.1
Density of pharmacists (per 10,000 population) (2009-2018): 10.5

Source: World health statistics 2019: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/324835/9789241565707-eng.pdf
https://www.who.int/gho/publications/world_health_statistics/2019/en/

Professionally Active Primary Care Physicians in the US by Field (March 2019):
• Internal Medicine: 197,506
• Family Medicine/General Practice: 139,407
• Pediatrics: 87,637
• Obstetrics & Gynecology: 53,913
• Geriatrics: 1,393
• Total: 479,856

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation. Professionally Active Primary Care Physicians by Field. Timeframe: March 2019. Last accessed Nov. 2, 2019.
https://www.kff.org/state-category/providers-service-use/physicians/
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/primary-care-physicians-by-field/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

Professionally Active Specialist Physicians In the US by Field (March 2019):
• Psychiatry: 54,935
• Surgery: 53,002
• Anesthesiology: 50,121
• Emergency Medicine: 55,671
• Radiology: 47,828
• Cardiology: 32,640
• Oncology: 20,473
• Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism: 8,046
• All Other Specialties: 202,723
• Total: 525,439

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation. Professionally Active Specialist Physicians In the US By Field. Timeframe: March 2019. Last accessed Nov. 2, 2019.
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/physicians-by-specialty-area/
https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/physicians-by-specialty-area/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedRows=%7B%22wrapups%22:%7B%22united-states%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D

“• We continue to project that physician demand will grow faster than supply, leading to a projected total physician shortfall of between 46,900 and 121,900 physicians by 2032 (Exhibit ES-1). This projected shortfall range reflects updates to model inputs including updated population projections, revised starting demand and supply projections, updated estimates of physician specialty choice, larger starting-year shortfall estimates based on recently revised federal health professional shortage area (HPSA) designations for primary care and mental health, and lower projections of future insurance coverage expansion. The projected range is similar to the previous (2018) study’s projected shortfall range for 2030 of between 42,600 and 121,300 physicians.

” o A primary care physician shortage of 21,100 to 55,200 physicians is projected by 2032. The shortfall range reflects the projected rapid growth in the supply of APRNs and PAs and their role in care delivery, trends that might strengthen the nation’s primary care foundation and improve access to preventive care, and an estimate by the Health Resources and Services Administration that nearly 14,472 primary care physicians are needed to remove the primary care shortage designation from all currently designated shortage areas.

” o Projected shortfalls in non-primary care specialty categories of 24,800 to 65,800 physicians, including a 14,300 to 23,400 shortfall in 2032 for surgical specialties. The range reflects different assumptions about shifting workforce patterns for physicians and other professionals. In the surgical specialties, a largely stagnant projected supply also contributes to projected shortages.”

Source: Dall TM, Jones K, Chakrabarti R, Reynolds R, Iacobucci W. 2019 Update, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2017 to 2032. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 2019.
https://www.aamc.org/data-reports/workforce/data/2019-update-complexities-physician-supply-and-demand-projections-2017-2032
https://www.aamc.org/media/26541/download

• In 2012, 46.1 primary care physicians and 65.5 specialists were available per 100,000 population.

• From 2002 through 2012, the supply of specialists consistently exceeded the supply of primary care physicians.

• Compared with the national average, the supply of primary care physicians was higher in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington; it was lower in Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas.

• In 2012, 53.0% of office-based primary care physicians worked with physician assistants or nurse practitioners.

• Compared with the national average, the percentage of physicians working with physician assistants or nurse practitioners was higher in 19 states and lower in Georgia.

Source: Hing E, Hsiao CJ. State variability in supply of office-based primary care providers: United States, 2012. NCHS data brief, no 151. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2014.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db151.htm

“From 2002 to 2012, the supply of primary care physicians, measured as the number per 100,000 population, was stable, as was the ratio between primary care physicians and specialists, continuing a trend observed since the 1990s (7–9). In 2012, the supply of primary care physicians varied by state. In four states (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington), the supply of primary care physicians was higher than the national average of 46.1 per 100,000 population; in six states (Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas), the supply was lower than the national average.”

“Physician assistants and nurse practitioners are more prevalent in rural and underserved areas, which have fewer primary care physicians (2,3,10). The findings—that the supply of primary care physicians increased as office locations became more urban, whereas the inclusion of physician assistants or nurse practitioners in primary care physician practices increased as office locations became less urban—are consistent with previous studies (2–4,10,11). State variation in the availability of physician assistants or nurse practitioners in primary care physician practices may also depend on the presence of integrated health care delivery systems, such as group health maintenance organizations, which include physician assistants and nurse practitioners more often than other physician practices (11). Our study found that physicians in multispecialty group practices had physician assistants or nurse practitioners in their practices more often than did single-specialty group practices or small (solo or partner) practices. Other factors, such as state variation in scope-of-practice laws for physician assistants and nurse practitioners and insurance payment policies, also affect the availability of physician assistants and nurse practitioners in physician practices (2–4,10,11).”

” • Demographics — specifically, population growth and aging — continue to be the primary driver of increasing demand from 2017 to 2032. During this period, the U.S. population is projected to grow by 10.3%, from about 326 million to 359 million. The population under age 18 is projected to grow by only 3.5%, while the population aged 65 and over is projected to grow by 48.0%. Because seniors have much higher per capita consumption of health care than younger populations, the percentage growth in demand for services used by seniors is projected to be much higher than the percentage growth in demand for pediatric services.

” • Achieving population health goals will raise demand for physicians in the long term. This scenario models the implications for physician demand associated with achieving select population health goals like reducing excess body weight; improving control of blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels; and reducing smoking prevalence. Under this scenario, the longevity associated with improved population health would result in greater demand for services by 2032. The demand for physicians would thus be 33,900 FTEs higher in 2032 relative to demand levels in the absence of achieving these goals. Although prevention efforts likely will reduce demand for some specialties, like endocrinology, demand for other specialties, like geriatric medicine, will increase.”

Health Systems Facts is a project of the Real Reporting Foundation. We provide reliable statistics and other data from authoritative sources regarding health systems in the US and several other nations.

Page last updated Dec. 13, 2020 by Doug McVay, Editor.