Population, Mid-Year 2019: 5,772,000
Projected Population Mid-Year 2030: 6,002,000
Percentage of Population Under Age 25 Years, Mid-Year 2019: 29%
Percentage of Population 65 Years Or Over, Mid-Year 2019: 20%

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/424).

Percent of Adults Aged 65 and Over Receiving Long-Term Care (2017): NA
Percent of Adults Aged 65 Years and Over Reporting To Be In Fair, Bad, or Very Bad Health (2017): 42.6%
People With Dementia Per 1,000 Population (2019): 17.0%
Projected Number of People With Dementia Per 1,000 Population in 2050: 28.3%

Source: OECD (2019), Health at a Glance 2019: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/4dd50c09-en.

“In 2017, Danes reaching the age of 65 could expect to live another 19.6 years, 2.5 years more than in 2000, although many of these years are lived with some health issues and disabilities (Figure 4). The gender gap in life expectancy at age 65 is 2.5 years in favour of women, but the gap in the number of healthy life years is much smaller because Danish women live a greater part of their lives in old age with some health issues and disabilities.¹

“While about half reported having at least one chronic condition, this does not mean that older Danes cannot lead a normal life and carry on their usual activities, and most people are able to continue to live independenly in old age. However, one in eight Danish people aged 65 and over reported some limitations in basic activities of daily living (ADL) such as dressing and eating.”

Source: OECD/European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies (2019), Denmark: Country Health Profile 2019, State of Health in the EU, OECD Publishing, Paris/European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, Brussels.

“In 2013, we observed 4.66 million hospital days in the Danish population. The population aged 0–14 accounted for 0.37 million days (7.9%), the population aged 15–49–1.07 million days (22.9%), and the population aged 50–69–1.47 million days (31.6%). In 2013, men and women aged 70+ contributed 0.82 and 0.93 million hospital days, respectively, together accounting for 37.5% of all hospital days.

“We combined the age- and sex-specific hospital care use of 2013 with Statistics Denmark’s population projections to forecast the number of hospital days up to 2050. Results of the forecast are shown in Fig 3. The total number of hospital days per year increased by 42% within the observed period, reaching an overall level of 6.72 million days in 2050. The number of hospital days in the population younger than 70 is forecasted to remain relatively stable during the projection period: 0.40 million days (6.0%) for the age group 0–14 years, 1.11 million days (16.6%) for persons aged 15–49, and 1.43 million days (21.2%) for the age group 50–69 years.

“In contrast, the number of days accounted for by the population aged 70+ is projected to increase steadily and to more than double. By 2050, the population aged 70+ is forecasted to account for 3.78 million days, or 56.2% of all hospital days. In the 70+ age group, men are expected to contribute 1.94 million days whereas women are expected to contribute 1.84 million days. This will correspond to 28.9% and 27.3%, respectively, of all hospital days in 2050.”

Source: Oksuzyan A, Ho¨hn A, Krabbe Pedersen J, Rau R, Lindahl-Jacobsen R, Christensen K (2020). Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050. PLoS ONE 15(9): e0238912. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238912

“In line with previous findings, our study shows that hospital care use at late and post working ages is especially important for the total national hospital care demand. Previous research has shown that two opposite trends may have an impact on future hospital care use levels at these ages. On the one hand, if incidences of leading causes of death, including stroke and myocardial infarction, continue to decline in low-mortality countries, including Denmark [32], this morbidity postponement may reduce levels of hospital care use among the elderly [33].

“On the other hand, it may be that the time spent with major chronic diseases does not shrink as life expectancy increases, and that frailty among the elderly even increases [34]. In addition, medical advances may facilitate safer hospital treatments of older patients, leading to a growing number of individuals at older ages with chronic conditions and multi morbidity and higher levels of hospital care use in the future [35,36]. However, these new technologies may also enable a shift of treatments from inpatient to outpatient healthcare settings. As all these changes may occur simultaneously, the general direction of population-level trends in hospital care use is difficult to predict. We therefore consider our findings to be neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic, but to reflect a possible scenario.

“Apart from long-term trends in admission strategies, hospital care use is also determined by health behaviours. Studies show that smoking, hazardous drinking, obesity, lack of physical activity, and an unhealthy diet are associated with a higher risk of hospitalization at the individual level [37]. General trends in Denmark are encouraging, as smoking rates are decreasing, diet has improved, and physical inactivity over the last two decades has decreased [38,39].

“Future levels of hospital care use at the population level will be associated with the age pattern of diseases, trends in health behaviours within populations, as well as with the organizational structure and performance of healthcare systems.”

Source: Oksuzyan A, Ho¨hn A, Krabbe Pedersen J, Rau R, Lindahl-Jacobsen R, Christensen K (2020). Preparing for the future: The changing demographic composition of hospital patients in Denmark between 2013 and 2050. PLoS ONE 15(9): e0238912. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238912

Health Systems Facts is a project of the Real Reporting Foundation. We provide reliable statistics and other data from authoritative sources regarding health systems in the US and several other nations.

Page last updated Sept. 10, 2021 by Doug McVay, Editor.