“By the agencies’ estimates, 89 percent of the noninstitutionalized civilian population under age 65 will have health insurance in 2019, on average, mostly from employment-based plans and Medicaid (see Table 1-1). Other major sources of coverage include the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), nongroup policies, and Medicare. Over the 2019–2029 period, on average, 88 percent of that population is projected to be insured, under an assumption that current laws affecting health care generally remain unchanged.

“The types of coverage that people enroll in vary substantially depending on their income (see Figure 1-1). Of the total population under age 65, 58 percent of people are estimated to obtain employment-based insurance in. That number is 21 percent for people with income below 150 percent of the federal poverty guidelines (known as the federal poverty level, or FPL), 63 percent for people with income between 150 percent and 400 percent of the FPL, and 88 percent for people with income above 400 percent of the FPL. Enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP also varies substantially by income: 58 percent of people with income below 150 percent of the FPL are estimated to enroll in such coverage in 2019. That share declines to an estimated 18 percent for people with income between 150 percent and 400 percent of the FPL (many of whom had higher income over the course of a year than they did when they enrolled in Medicaid).

“Over the 2020–2029 period, the number of enrollees in each of the types of coverage used by the most people is projected to be generally stable (see Figure 1-2 on page 8). Enrollment in employment-based coverage, CHIP, and Medicare by noninstitutionalized people under age 65 is estimated to be roughly the same, enrollment in nongroup coverage is estimated to decline slightly, and enrollment in Medicaid to increase slightly.

“Projecting insurance coverage is an inherently uncertain endeavor, so CBO and JCT’s estimates presented here could be either too high or too low when compared with actual outcomes in the future. But the estimates reflect the best data available and aim to represent the average of possible outcomes under current law.”

Source: Congressional Budget Office, “Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2019 to 2029” (May 2019), https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55085.